In many business management books, the
success of the famous enterprise, such as Southwest Airlines (Southwest
Airlines), often by the performance of analyzing carefully, trying to find
their way to success. But the statement often unable to agree. The success of
the southwest airlines because the company strategy? This of course is not
without reason. So for enterprise culture? In a lot of respects, this statement
also makes sense, although this conclusion is based on completely different
information. Will the company is because it strategy, but also because it's
enterprise culture? Oh, right, and also the management ability, and if from another
Angle carries on the analysis, the factors seem also is very important. If all
look very important which, how do we know the most attention should be what?
Think back to the last time you read books of business management. It provides what kind of evidence to support his claims? Yes, from the real world very enlightening the case may be, but the case study has its limitations. We need to know where the limitations of it, don't be veiled.
This is because of the problem of excessive
rely on case studies to do the conclusion, almost completely don't consider any
other factors. Careful analysis can really offers some Suggestions to help
people get some results, or to avoid some consequences. But if we neglect case
study limitations will get into trouble, next we will this one normal
circumstance:
Description: what happened
Alfred Sloan in 1963 published
autobiography "I in General Motors Years" (My Years with General
Motors) is the paragon: effective descriptive case studies cannot leave the
detail. Sloan in 1923-1956 served as General Motors (General Motors) President,
chief executive and chairman, and other position, this from the point of view
of the autobiography he described his role in General Motors and he bred
principle.
Sloan in this book not according to the
personal experiences any sums up, no flash any claim, he put these to readers.
But his record inspired generations of managers and researchers, attempts to
summarize if meet the challenge of as Sloan did, what action should be taken.
If our case is not widely used, we describe
the best not to scale beyond Sloan. Again, selling commercial management books
often a Passover this boundary. Do not eliminate some exceptions, but overall,
most of these books have the following one of two defects.
One is according to the case and carefully
selected from a large number of data derived out to prove a theory, to test the
reliability of the theory of ignoring other large number of samples. In other
words, they provide to us is "for example", not evidence. Second, a
carefully selected cases, usually is one of the best company. This problem is
especially serious, because there is no example cases with wider association
between samples, also have good reasons why the representative cases.
Explanation: why is this happening
What happened is matter; Understand the
reason behind is a horse of a different color. Business historian Alfred
master? Chandler
But popular commercial management analysis
there are few such comprehensive explanation. Excellent enterprise are
immediately as a great company, reason is controversial. Business books and
periodicals publishers are also always have their favourite: about ten years is
Southwest Airlines (Southwest Airlines), today is round to Apple (Apple).
People were at sixes and sevens, will these companies success attributable to
in strategy, culture, management ability and other factors.
All these explanations are a point, but the
correct explanation to make sense of all the related to facts, understand why
they better than other explanations. This is chandler research results have
been achieved to standard. Unfortunately, today's business case studies tend to
rely on the reader to decide what is a reasonable explanation, allowing readers
to weigh the evidence is reliable.
Prediction: what will happen next
Talking about forecast, the situation is
even worse. Most business management books from the exaggerated explain
further, jump to groundless prediction. They are of the opinion that it is in
their there, so it has the same here with you. This view is based on:
"this way in the past, so effective is also expected to help you according
to their wishes to decide the future", but this hypothesis obviously
deficiencies.
A reasonable forecast was the only way to
predict are given, and then see if it can withstand repeated the test and
verify. I don't know that today's business management books which this ever to
give advice had even to the scientific method to touch the edge of a point on
the forecast accuracy verification. (yes, I know had such a number of this. But
it is my own, so I write my evaluation of the pros and cons. It convenient)
The real world is very complex, want to
undertake controlling experiment is almost impossible. But could not provide
forecast accuracy of the evidence, it's not that you can change the rules of
evidence. And, the imaginary things as the facts will only have dangerous
misleading. Only when the case study included reliable causal relationship,
they can help us accurately predict the results.
A description, explain or predict support,
case study can help us, but may not the same, reliability and each different.
So, the next time somebody say "such as", you may need to think it
over.
